Do new parks spark gentrification even before breaking ground?

 

Among the single-family properties described above, we categorized properties as “treatment” properties if they were within a half-mile of a new park, and as “control” properties if they were beyond a half-mile (within gentrification-eligible tracts). We used a half-mile (804.67 m) as a reasonable measure to capture gentrification around a park site before its opening and after its opening. Similar studies modelling green gentrification via hedonic price modelling used thresholds ranging between approximately a quarter-mile (402.33 m) and a half-mile, with a half-mile threshold used in other types green gentrification research as well. Additionally, the half-mile threshold is used widely in the United States to indicate that a park is within walking distance.

 

In this study, we sought to untangle the complex spatiotemporal relationships between greening and gentrification. We asked whether and under which circumstances gentrification is associated with subsequent greening (i.e., gentrification precedes greening) and greening is associated with subsequent gentrification (i.e., gentrification follows greening). We found some evidence of the green gentrification cycle in Los Angeles: nearby home sales prices increased significantly more dramatically before and after new park construction relative to sales prices of otherwise similar homes further away. 

 

In the main models, we also found some evidence of gentrification before greening in Chicago, and little such evidence after greening, which echoes the results of a recent study in the city. Findings in Chicago were influenced by the relatively small sample size of the number of treatment properties in the city, which led to large confidence intervals for treatment properties in each year studied. The smaller sample size is likely because Chicago has a less competitive real estate market than Los Angeles with fewer transactions, and a smaller percentage of single-family homes than many other American cities. Also, given the small size of most of the new parks in our analysis, our findings that gentrification is associated with subsequent greening should not be influenced by the announcement effect that has been identified for large parks, wherein the mere announcement that large projects will be built may jumpstart gentrification before such parks open to the public.

 

 

Our findings build on those of previous research and corroborate growing evidence that gentrification might precede and/or follow greening in some cases. Several studies showed evidence of gentrification before new green space or bike infrastructure was built (Ferenchak and Marshall, 2021, Reibel et al., 2023, Sharifi et al., 2021). Other studies indicated instances of gentrification after greening (Anguelovski et al., 2022, Rigolon and Németh, 2020, Triguero-Mas et al., 2022). A recent study in large Canadian cities showed more instances of gentrification following greening than preceding greening (Quinton et al., 2023), whereas another study in Melbourne, Australia, showed gentrification before greening but not after greening (Sharifi et al., 2021). Overall, our study shows more consistent evidence of gentrification being associated with subsequent greening than of greening being associated with ensuing gentrification. This suggests the possibility that in Los Angeles and Chicago, gentrifiers, developers, and elected officials may have sought to direct green space investments to gentrifying communities.

 

When considering all parks, we found more evidence of greening being associated with subsequent gentrification in Los Angeles than in Chicago, and this could be because the latter has a stronger park system than the former. Thus, adding new parks to underserved neighbourhoods might have a stronger effect on subsequent gentrification in Los Angeles than in Chicago. Also, Los Angeles’ park investments systematically targeting park-poor, low-income communities of color (including the 50 Parks Initiative) might have accelerated the green gentrification cycle, suggesting that park equity efforts without adequate anti-displacement strategies might be particularly prone to spurring gentrification. Accordingly, recent studies in Chicago found that new parks had no or limited associations with subsequent gentrification (Schusler et al., 2023, Stuhlmacher et al., 2022) and a study in Los Angeles showed signs of gentrification after greening for parks built under the 50 Parks Initiative (Ferguson et al., 2014). Another study in Canadian cities also found differences in how gentrification precedes and follows greening between Vancouver, Calgary, and Toronto, suggesting that city-specific contextual factors might play a significant role in explaining green gentrification processes (Quinton et al., 2023).

 

Despite the study’s limitations, our findings offer some directions for urban planners and policymakers interested in limiting the negative impacts of green gentrification. In sum, our study suggests that urban planners and policymakers could undertake initiatives to limit gentrification processes both before and after new parks are built.

 

Also, we found more evidence of gentrification before greening than after greening in Los Angeles and Chicago, a finding with several implications. First, initiatives to limit gentrification and displacement could be put in place before new parks are built in underserved communities rather than after (Rigolon & Christensen, 2019). Second, especially when new parks are built in places that are already gentrifying, planners and nonprofit partners could consider pairing the development of new parks with the construction of new affordable housing on the same site or nearby (Yee et al., 2018). Third, if affordable housing funding is not available or other anti-displacement policies are not politically viable, planners could prioritize park investments in low-income neighbourhoods that are not gentrifying rather than in those experiencing rapid change.

 

 

 

Although our findings for the regional parks, downtown, and transit models are affected by large confidence intervals, they do provide some insight for planners and policymakers. For instance, we found that gentrification might precede and follow greening in Los Angeles for new parks that are not regional, i.e., they are smaller and less expensive than new large flagship parks (e.g., New York’s High Line, London’s Camden Highline). Research has shown that those flagship parks have a significant impact (Black and Richards, 2020, Immergluck and Balan, 2018, Rigolon and Németh, 2020). But our findings mean that planners and policymakers worried about gentrification and displacement also need to pay attention to smaller park projects. Additionally, we found that evidence of gentrification following greening is stronger close to downtown than farther from it in Los Angeles.

 

When also considering other research showing that gentrification follows greening especially close to city centres, cities could prioritise anti-displacement initiatives in areas closer to downtowns concurrently with planning new green spaces in those locations. We hope that future research in this area will provide additional guidance for policymaking.

Green gentrification presents challenges to planners and policymakers worldwide. Aiming to inform equitable greening policies, this study adds to the growing body of research on green gentrification by analysing whether and under which circumstances gentrification precedes and follows the opening of new parks in Los Angeles and Chicago. Building on our findings and other green gentrification literature, additional research in a broader set of cities could help policymakers develop evidence-based strategies to limit green gentrification and related displacement.

 

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An edited excerpt from Does gentrification precede and follow greening? Evidence about the green gentrification cycle in Los Angeles and Chicago by Alessandro Rigolon, Timothy Collins, Junsik Kim, Michelle Stuhlmacher, Jon Christensen. First published in Landscape and Urban Planning, Volume 248, 2024.