In a death spiral: Is London becoming a city without kids?

“If you look at pupils as spreadsheet data, you could fit all 120 pupils in [Princess May] and that school would be saved. But if parents don’t send kids there, it won’t fix that problem.” He also points out hundreds of family homes are planned as part of the Dalston Plan, with Colvestone likely to be needed for the future influx of new families.

However the council argues demand for Colvestone remains “unsustainably low”, and it had given all the support available to try to deal with its falling rolls, including underwriting some of its financial deficit. “None of the measures taken so far have been sufficient,” its website reads.

“This year alone, primary schools in Hackney are set to lose more than £30m in funding compared to what they would be entitled to if classrooms were full”, Hackney’s deputy mayor and education chief Cllr Anntoinette Bramble told The Developer.

“Previously there was a large proportion of families in inner-London who were council tenants”

"A school with insufficient funding is an unstable learning environment, and will almost inevitably see performance and standards fall over time. This is why we are now looking at some of the schools affected the most, proposing the closure of two schools and the merger of four others into two.

"We know that schools have very close connections to their local area and communities, and that’s why proposing closing and merging schools is one of the most difficult decisions we could make, and not one we would look at unless we had no other choice. But the quality of education for our children must take priority." 

According to Ian Gordon, an emeritus professor in human geography at the LSE, some schools are seeing the “cumulative impact” of shrinkage going further back in time. Indeed, Hackney’s data for De Beauvoir Primary shows pupil numbers have fallen steadily every year from 361 in 2015, to just 115 this academic year.

The drop-off is an indicator of the city’s “continuing gentrification”, he says, adding that in areas like Islington this started as far back as the 1950s, whereas in Hackney it only really took off after the arrival of the overground in the late 2000s when the area became more desirable and accessible.

“The London story is about people moving from inner boroughs to outer boroughs, and some moving further afield. This is normal, but it has become accelerated.”

The drop-off is an indicator of the city’s “continuing gentrification”, he says, adding that in areas like Islington this started as far back as the 1950s

Contributing factors, according to Gordon, are a worsening in housing affordability since the financial crisis as London’s wealthier residents invested more heavily in housing, and the siphoning of council housing under Right to Buy.  

He adds: “Previously there was a large proportion of families in inner-London who were council tenants. Now there’s a smaller and smaller core of council tenants who are outside the market and another generation who can’t get into that secure accommodation.”

Another part of the story that has been overlooked, says Gordon, is that wealthier families moving in are sending children to independent schools. In Camden, where four state schools have closed, 40 per cent of children are privately educated.

Free schools and academies are funded directly by central government and so insulated from the crisis

There are other local pressures too. In Hackney, the council says its council schools are contending with competition for places from four free schools and academies (“agreed and championed by the DfE)” and set up during a previous spike in pupil numbers.

Despite also facing falling pupil numbers, free schools and academies are funded directly by central government and so insulated from the crisis. Some London faith schools have also been impacted, such as the 300-year-old Archbishop Tenison’s School in Oval, which announced in April it would close at the end of the school year. 

Yet it is the local authority schools that are so far bearing the brunt in places like Hackney, leading to fears the borough’s state education provision will slowly erode. According to Cooter, there could be more closures on the horizon, and a risk of a “death spiral” in the borough, whereby fewer lower income families will be able to find schools to send children to, simply pushing more families away.

“The schools that are closing are those that are more diverse, have a higher percentage of pupils with Special Educational Needs and a higher proportion of lower income students on free school meals”, he says.

The disappearance of London schools is a worrying trend. As Gooch says: “If [Bogota mayor] Enrique Peñalosa is right and children are a kind of indicator species for cities, then their disappearance from central London should be ringing major alarm bells.”